Weekend Spreads 3/25/2023

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Thursday night we were given two more gifts from the college basketball Gods. Both the Michigan State Vs. Kansas State and Gonzaga Vs. UCLA games were high drama. If you are a fan of either basketball or anxiety, you got your money’s worth. Kansas State and Gonzaga left with victories on strip steals in the final seconds.

Thursday’s other winners, the Connecticut Huskies, and the surprising Florida Atlanta Owls rounded out the first four of the Elite 8. Those least surprised by FAU’s success are the FA Owls themselves, as they have been winning all season, now with a 34-3 record, the Owls can play with anyone,

Friday was somehow equally as great. The games themselves may not have provided the same drama as the day previous, but San Diego State and Miami victories meant all No. 1 seeds have been eliminated, with Houston and Alabama being upset - marking the first time the Elite 8 will not have a seed higher than No. 2. Creighton and Texas moved to the next round with double-digit wins, setting the stage for this weekend’s Elite 8.

March Madness Winners’ odds (3/25)

Source: Covers.com

Draft Kings/Fan Duel Spotlight

No-brainer:

Jimmy Butler: An unheralded superstar, Butler has put the Miami Heat on his back. This is the Bubble Butler we all fell in love with. Bam Adebayo’s scoring is down two points per game over his last ten contests. This is in part due to Butler’s end-of-possession, and end-of-game aggressiveness. Tyler Herro has been good all season, but in money spots, Jimmy is the one cashing in. Butler is averaging 27 points, 7 boards, and 6 assists per game over his last ten. DK and Fan Duel have yet to price him accordingly based on recent production.

Low-hanging fruit:

The Philadelphia 76ers will go as far as Joel Embiid takes them - zero discussion there. However, the engine is Tyrese Maxey. Maxey’s point production is up over his last ten games, but more importantly, his role as a Point Guard and facilitator is also greatly improved. He is averaging 5 assists per contest as opposed to his season average of 3. Tyrese is finding open spots from the perimeter as the defense collapses on Joel, shooting 51% from the three-point territory over that same stretch. DK and Fan Duel generally price Maxey outside the top 15% - 20% at the guard position, making him a great value add to your lineup, as you are almost guaranteed 35 minutes, 20 points, 3 rebounds, 4 assists, and at least 2 three-point makes.

Our Picks for the Weekend

• 3/25: (NCAA M) UCONN - 2

• 3/25: (NCAA M) K-STATE -1.5

• 3/25:(NCAA M) FAU VS. K-STATE OVER 144.5

• 3/25: (NBA) L.A.CLIPPERS -5

• 3/26: (NCAA M) CRIEGHTON VS. S.D. STATE OVER 133

• 3/26: (NCAA M) TEXAS - 4

Source: MyBookie.Com

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Top Sportsbook Spreads

News

NBA: 

After flirting with a league MVP award for years, Joel Embiid currently stands alone at the top of the hill. With three weeks left in the season, Joel cannot afford to relax with 2x MVP Award winners, Nikola Jokic, and Giannis Antetokounmpo on his heels. Jayson Tatum and Luka Doncic are fourth and fifth (per NBA.com,) but it is considered a three-horse race at this point, with Embiid leading the way.

In the Western Conference, there are 3.5 games separating 4th and 12th place, with none of those teams on a winning streak greater than three games. The Los Angeles Lakers, powered by a healthy Anthony Davis, rejuvenated D’Angelo Russell, and a shell-shattered Austin Reaves are at .500 for the first time all season, winners of seven of their last ten games, and currently in the eighth playoff spot - looking back on the play-in game. Lebron James, who has not played in exactly one month, continues to rehab and is now lifting weights and shooting regularly. The Lakers are getting hot, and healthy at the right time.

NFL:

• The Aaron Rodgers situation is unlikely to settle anytime soon with neither party appearing to move from, what is perceived to be an issue of Rodgers’ value. It seems unfair that a 4x MVP would be undervalued, but at age 40 in the fast pace game of the NFL, where we see mobile quarterbacks flourish more each year, the Green Bay Packers’ asking price of a first-round pick and more, maybe more than the New York Jets are willing to give. We are just waiting for one of these Front Offices to blink.

Former Green Bay Packers Vice President, Andrew Brandt provides more color:

Super Bowl Odds as of 3/25/2023 (Source Draftkings Sportsbook)

• Kansas City Chiefs: +600

• San Francisco 49ers: +700

• Philadelphia Eagles: +850

• Buffalo Bills: +850

• Cincinnati Bengals: +850

• Dallas Cowboys: +1400

• New York Jets: +1400

Oddsmakers moving the Philadelphia Eagles into the third position, swapping places and odds with the Buffalo Bills. The Cincinnati Bengals’ odds improved from +900 to +800, while the Dallas Cowboys and New York Jets stayed at +1400. The Detroit Lions have leapfrogged many teams, and now have the eighth-best odds of winning the 2024 Super Bowl at +2500

The NFL is currently negotiating a contract extension with League Commissioner, Roger Goodall. As the NFL owners’ mouthpiece and best friend, Goodell has been instrumental in record profits for franchise owners, putting Goodell in line for a record extension. What many consider the most dangerous sport is infamous for underpaying players in the guaranteed comp variety, relative to MLB and the NBA. In 2021, the NFL negotiated a $100 billion media deal with ESPN, CBS, Amazon Prime, Fox, and NBC - pushing more money back into the pockets of ownership. With his success comes loyalty from the league. Roger’s new deal is set to dwarf his current $200 million dollar deal. The details are yet to be made public.

_{Here are a few of our favorite MLB future bets}

MLB: 5 DAYS UNTIL CHRISTMAS, I MEAN OPENING DAY.

World Series Champion: Cleveland Guardians +3000

World Series Champion odds as of 3/25/2023 (Source Mybookie.com)

American League MVP: Randy Arozarena +8500

AL MVP odds as of 3/25/2023 (Source Mybookie.com)

National League MVP: Michael Harris II +4800

NL MVP odds as of 3/25/2023 (Source Mybookie.com)

MLS: The St. Louis City SC looks to continue its historic run. After starting the season with an MLS expansion team record, of 4-0, SC heads to Utah to take on Real Salt Lake. Salt Lake has just one win in three games. A decisive underdog, St. Louis will look to add a fifth win and shed the “lucky” tag.

BONUS PICK: St. Louis City Sc: (Moneyline) +255

Man Down

NBA: We highlighted Paul George in our DFS Spotlight last week. Little did we know that may be his last week on the court this season. George suffered what looked to be a gruesome injury. The initial prognosis of 2-3 weeks is promising considering the optics. The postseason schedule sets up well for a PG return pending that time table is accurate.

• Trae Young: (calf contusion) is listed as “day-to-day.”

• Demar DeRozan: (quadriceps) is listed as “OUT.”

• Kyrie Irving: (foot) is listed as “questionable.”

• Tyrese Haliburton: (ankle) is “OUT.” He has not played since 3/9.

• D’Angelo Russell (hip) is listed as “day-to-day.”

• Lebron James: (foot) is listed as “OUT” but has resumed shooting.

• Steven Adams: (knee) is “OUT,” with a return tag of four weeks.

• James Harden (Achilles) is listed as “day-to-day.”

• Kevin Durant: (ankle) is expected to return Wednesday, 3/29.

• Damian Lillard: (calf) is listed as ‘day-to-day.”

• Lauri Markkanen: (hand) is listed as “OUT.”

• Bradley Beal: (knee) is listed as “OUT.”

• Kyle Kuzama: (ankle) is listed as “OUT.”

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